UPDATE: The underdog Jacksonville State Gamecocks win the game outright by 14 points. The Indian Cowboy basketball streak goes to 17-1. Guess who I will be following tomorrow in college basketball?
4* Wed: Jacksonville State +5.5 over Morehead State (W)
4* Tue: Evansville +5.5 over Creighton (W)
4* Mon: Oklahoma +5 over Missouri (W)
4* Sun: Michigan State -7 over Michigan (W)
4* Sat: Texas A&M over KState (W)
5* Fri: Niagara +11.5 over Fairfield (W)
4* Thur: Washington St -6.5 over USC (W)
4* Wed: Kansas -17 over Oklahoma (W)
4* Tue: Iowa State -1 over Kansas State (W)
5* Mon: Texas +1.5 over Wright St (W)
4* Sun: Indiana U -11.5 over Iowa (W)
4* Sat: Alabama -12 over Arkansas (L)
4* Fri: Loyola-Chicago +9 over Wright St (W)
4*Thur: Arizona State +7 over Washington (W)
4* Wed: LSU +8.5 over Miss State (W)
5* Tue: Vanderbilt -9 over Tennessee (W)
4* Mon: Georgia State -11.5 over James Madison (W)
4* Sun: Wisconsin -1 over Illinois (W)
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This will be my only bet today.
I am upping my daily bet to 5.5% of the bankroll. Fellow blogger MacMiller has me thinking about money management. If you have a small bankroll, one method of money management you might try is to bet .265 of your bankroll. If we hit 65% winners you will have the most amount of money after any period of time. That would just leave you betting on college basketball. You would have to stay away from hockey and the NBA. I wonder if those last two sports are even handicappable. This method is called the optimum betting strategy. 65% winning long term = 26.5% of your bankroll per bet. For someone with a small bankroll you can afford to lose, I would recommend this strategy. No parlays, teasers, NHL or NBA; just betting one college basketball game at a time. If you win three games in a row you just about double your bankroll. It might not sound as conservative as what I am doing, but this is for the player with a small starting bankroll that wants the greatest chance of doubling as fast as possible. $1,000 doubled ten times is over $1,000,000. Do the math to prove it to yourself. But you got to do the work. You got to get the best line. Shop around, have multiple outs. You don't want to lose a game by the hook because you just went to only one sports book.
As an example, if you were starting with $1,000 today with money you can afford to lose, you would bet $265 on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks + 5 1/2. If you won your balance would be $1,240. If you lost your balance would be $735. Then the next game you would bet .265 times whatever your new balance was. Right now we are following a handicapper who is on a 16-1 streak in college basketball.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks/Morehead State Eagles on streaming radio
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Total profit since this blog started and today's beginning balance: $93,847
Bet per dime: ($93,847 divided by 1,000 units) times 1.1 = $103.23
ITS 1:27 PM EASTERN WEDNESDAY - INDIAN COWBOY FOLLOW PLAY: 50 Dimes on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks + 5 1/2 visiting the Morehead State Eagles playing in the Ellis T Johnson Arena in Morehead, Kentucky at 7:00 PM EST., Bet $5,161 (50 X $103.23), grading this at + 5 1/2 but as always shop around. RESULTS: Won $4,691
FINAL SCORE: Jacksonville State Gamecocks 69 Morehead State Eagles 55
Win on the day: 50 dimes or $4,691
Total profit since this blog started and today's ending balance: $98,538
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The Toast of the Town checks in after two days of partying:
Mr. Lang's paid pick -
20 Dimes: Massachusetts -4 over St. Bonaventure - Win
Free Pick: Michigan State - 14 1/2 over Penn State - Win
I am no longer fading Brandon Lang. So far Lang faders are down 100 dimes in 2012. Here is the complete 2012 Lang Fade record to date:
Jan 1st - 100 dimes - Balt -2(Win) +100 dimes
Jan 2nd - 50 dimes - Mich st/Georgia over 49.5(win) +50, +150 dimes YTD
...........- 100 dimes - Oklahoma st -4(loss) -110 dimes, +40 dimes YTD
Jan 3rd - 100 dimes - Virginia Tech +3(push) zero dimes, +40 dimes YTD
Jan 4th - 100 dimes - W. Virginia +3(win) +100 dimes, +140 dimes YTD
Jan 5th - 15 dimes - Miami Heat +2(win) +15 dimes +155 Dimes YTD
Jan 6th - 50 dimes - Arkansas -9(win) +50 dimes +205 dimes YTD
Jan 7th - 75 dimes - Cincinnati +4(loss) -82.50 dimes +122.50 dimes YTD
Jan 8th - 75 dimes - Atlanta +3(loss) -82.50 dimes +40 dimes YTD
Jan 9th - 100 dimes - Alabama -2(win) +100 dimes +140 Dimes YTD
Jan 10th - 25 dimes - Baylor +3(win) +25 dimes +165 dimes YTD
Jan 11th - 25 dimes - Charlotte +4.5(loss) -27.5 dimes +137.5 dimes YTD
Jan 12th - 25 dimes - Drexel -4(win) +25 dimes +162.5 Dimes YTD
Jan 13th - 25 dimes - S. Illinois -1(win) +25 dimes +187.5 dimes YTD
Jan 14th - 75 Dimes - New Orleans -3.5(loss) -82.5 Dimes +105 Dimes YTD
.............- 25 dimes - New England -13.5(win) +25 dimes +130 Dimes YTD
Jan 15th - 75 dimes - Houston +7.5(win) +75 dimes +205 dimes YTD
Jan 16th - 20 dimes - Kansas -7(win) +20 dimes +225 dimes YTD
Jan 17th - 10 dimes - Kentucky -16.5(win) 10 dimes +235 Dimes YTD
Jan 18th - 10 dimes - No. Iowa +2(loss) -11 dimes +224 dimes YTD
Jan 19th - 20 dimes - Dallas +2.5(win) +20 dimes +244 dimes YTD
Jan 20th - 10 dimes - Cleveland st -10(push) zero +244 Dimes YTD
Jan 21st - 75 dimes - Purdue +8.5(loss) -82.5 dimes 161.50 dimes YTD
Jan 22nd - 100 dimes - San Fran -2(loss) -110 dimes +51.50 Dimes YTD
............ - 50 dimes - Baltimore +7(win) +50 dimes +101.50 Dimes YTD
Jan 23rd - 20 dimes - Iona -10(loss) -22 dimes +79.50 Dimes YTD
Jan 24th - 20 dimes - Wyoming -2.5(loss) -22 dimes +57.50 Dimes YTD
Jan 25th - 20 dimes - Minnesota +10.5(loss) -22 dimes +35.50 Dimes YTD
Jan 26th - 20 dimes - Long Beach st -10(loss) -22 dimes +13.50 Dimes YTD
Jan 27th - 20 dimes - Harvard -6(win) +20 Dimes +33.50 Dimes YTD
Jan 28th - 50 dimes - Colorado st +2.5(win) +50 dimes +83.50 dimes YTD
............ - 50 dimes - Vanderbilt -8.5(loss) -55 dimes +28.50 dimes YTD
............ - 50 dimes - UC Irvine -2.5(win) +50 dimes +78.50 dimes YTD
Jan 29th - 20 dimes - Ohio st -14(win) +20 dimes +98.50 Dimes YTD
............ - 20 dimes - Rider -5(win) +20 dimes +118.50 dimes YTD
............ - 20 dimes - Indiana st +5(win) 20 dimes +138.50 Dimes YTD
Jan 30th - 75 dimes - Morgan st -1(loss) -82.50 dimes +56 Dimes YTD
Jan 31st - 20 dimes - Wisconsin -8(loss) -22 dimes +34 dimes YTD
Feb 1st - 20 dimes - Rhode Island +3.5(win) +20 dimes +54 Dimes YTD
Feb 2nd - 20 dimes - E. Washington -6(push) zero dimes +54 dimes YTD
Feb 3rd - 20 dimes - Loyola-Maryland -8(win) +20 dimes +74 dimes YTD
Feb 4th - 50 dimes - Wisconsin-Milwaukee +2(win) +50 dimes +124 Dimes YTD
Feb 5th - 200 dimes - New England -3 even(loss) -200 dimes-76 Dimes YTD
Feb 6th - 20 dimes - Texas -3(loss) -22 dimes -98 dimes YTD
Feb 7th - 20 dimes - Alabama -5.5(win) +20 dimes -78 dimes YTD
Feb 8th - 20 dimes - St. Bonnies +4(loss) over Massachusetts -100 dimes YTD
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How to make a quick $158,000 in Nevada:
This driver went into insulin shock and started weaving. He had a vial of insulin in his pocket. Notice one police officer came up and started kicking the gentleman in the head while he was down with cameras rolling. The troubling part is the police officers appeared more concerned that the incident was on camera than that the driver was in need of medical attention. The city of Henderson Nevada wrote the driver a check for $158,000:
Luckily I have a special accessory with my car to deal with police traffic stops:
You think I should follow this .265% on one game? I've unfortunately already taken a few games today including fading Brandon Lang. Also taken a few Rich Sports plays and of course your and IC's College Play.
ReplyDeleteI'm interested to try this though.
GoFalcons! Based on my experience, I think bettors play too many games. The more games you play, it seems your winning percentage goes down. This is just a money management concept for the small bettor who wants the greatest chance of increasing his bankroll. You might continue what you are doing, but have a separate bankroll for trying this system. You don't need a big bankroll either because of the power of compounding at 26.5% per play. With a small bankroll if you are losing, no big deal. But with a small bankroll and you get on a 16-1 streak, you are up huge. Indian Cowboy I think is doing over 70% in college basketball. Its dam impossible to find a 'capper this good in any sport. Using a percentage of your bankroll each time there is no way you will lose all your money if things go against you. When you win, you are betting more. When you are losing, you are betting less. It takes the emotion out of it. It is something to think about, good luck GoFalcons! We love the Air Force Academy too.
ReplyDeleteYa that completely makes sense to me.
ReplyDeleteThanks Blogger, I really appreciate it.
So hypothetically, if I had a day where I had 2 plays that I absolutely really loved. Do you still think I should stick with the .265 of the BR?
ReplyDeleteGoFalcons! Yes. The best scenario would be if one game played after the other game. So you would bet 26.5% of your bankroll on the first game, then do the same thing on the following play. If both games were going off at the same time, bet 26.5% of the bankroll and then divide it between the two games. Just for comfort, I don't think you would want more than 26.5% of your bankroll in action at any one moment in time.
ReplyDeleteCool I'm gonna try this out. Thanks Blogger!
ReplyDeleteGoFalcons! Please keep us abreast of the results. The hard part is finding a 'capper doing 65% In December I believe fading Brandon Lang would of got you over 65% wins on his bigger plays. And now following Indian Cowboy in college basketball is getting us over 65%. The beauty of the internet and the free flow of information is someone will get us on somebody worthy of fading or following. Good luck GoFalcons!
ReplyDeleteWhat money mgmt strategy are you currently following? I know the formula and understand the calculation. Can you explain the difference b/w strategies?
ReplyDeleteAs always thanks for your insight and your postings...
Hi: I am following the money management strategy on this blog. I am betting like grandma. I only recommend the 26.5% of your bankroll for bettors with a small bankroll (say $1,000 of money they can afford to lose) who want a chance to double their money in a very short period of time (like in a week or ten days) with minimum risk. Then I would like to see them double it again and again and again. Once they get their bankroll up there, then I would recommend cutting back to say 5.5% of the bankroll. In the meantime, I will do everything I can to try to maintain a 65% win rate here so that those that do bet 26.5% of their bankroll are optimally betting. No more NBA games where the refs decide the outcome of the game. No hockey bets that are huge favorites that lose. I realize not everyone has $100,000 as a starting bankroll. Thanks for your kind comment and good luck to you!
ReplyDeletehey Blogger
ReplyDeleteIll try it too , Im gonna take 30 k outof my bankroll and try it,
I cant lie im jealous you made 100k so fast, Im up about 12 flatbetting 1% of my br but gonna diversify 30k to this high risk/ high reward strategy.
Foyboy: Oh dam, you are going off the reservation on me. Please don't use such a big bankroll to start if you are betting 26.5% of your bankroll, please man. We could get on a losing streak any minute here. Think about starting with $10,000 or less please. If we do go 65% or better you will be up to $100,000 in no time starting with $10,000. If we lose, you are just losing some profits. Greed is your enemy here. This strategy is for a small starting bankroll. If you already got a big bankroll the key is capital preservation. We could lose the next ten games in a row. $30,000 is WAY too much of a bankroll to start the 26.5% strategy. Besides if we keep winning you will be moving the lines in about two weeks, lol. Rethink this Foyboy!
ReplyDeleteFoyboy: If you recall, while I was fading Lang I never bet more than like 11% of my bankroll on any one play and those were pretty rare. Lang would throw out those 100 dimers and lose most of them. I started with a starting bankroll of $100,000 and it has took me awhile to get close to the $100,000 profit level. I would not dream of betting $26,500 on a college basketball game. It seems crazy enough betting $5,000 a game. The 26.5% strategy is for those with a small bankroll who want a chance to double their money several times quickly. If you are going to start this 26.5% strategy, start it with a small bankroll please (like $10,000 or less in your case), not $30,000!
ReplyDeleteBlogger---how do you determine a dime value for each play? now we are following IC and most plays are 4* but some plays are 20d up to 40d. thanks.
ReplyDeleteps---this is the same anonymous person commenting.
Its funny, how after betting long enough money is just a number on your screen.
ReplyDeletewhat do you think is better, 10k at 26.5% or just do 5.5 of my whole roll.
I have a little more then you, but have not bought a car or taken my origional off the table.
Thanks again, You have have made more money then anyone i have seen online, and you documented the whole way through..
Awsome
Anonymous: Good question, before I was looking at the games and using personal judgement. From now on as long as I am following Indian Cowboy I will use the following formula:
ReplyDelete4* college basketball plays = 50 dimes or 5.5% of the bankroll
5* college basketball plays = 60 dimes or 6.6% of the bankroll
6* college basketball plays = 70 dimes or 7.7% of the bankroll
7* college basketball plays = 80 dimes or 8.8% of the bankroll
My bets here are going up percentage wise. Maybe I am getting greedy. But this works well for me as I am operating on pure profits. I will only bet one game a day. Before I was fading Lang, following IC or some other handicapper or making my own plays. So the dime amounts were different. For example, when fading Lang I used his dime amounts. But the Lang Fade is not the money maker it was in December. Nothing stays the same. But for now this is the dime strategy I will follow. Good luck!
Foyboy: I can't tell you how to bet or what money management strategy to use. You are the only one that can figure that out. As far as just being numbers on a screen, that is the way it should be. I don't get all excited now like I used to about winning money. I am worried now it will all come to a crashing end tomorrow. I am trying to cash in while I can. Maybe its the greed in me, but I feel like I am leaving money on the table lately. I am probably completely certifiable thinking I can win 65% over the long term. Be conservative!
ReplyDeleteCongrats on another great day! I think tomorrow maybe the day you get there and I hope you have a nice bottle on ice, a cigar or whatever other celebratory vice you may fancy. Thanks for all you do on here and its great to see a "good guy" do so well. Good Luck and Ill be rooting for you tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI guess if I take this approach its one game a day now. Very interesting read Blogger. ill defiantly look into it and get back to you. and yes NBA and NHL is absolutely brutal for me right now. College ball has been holding me together though. Good luck today!
ReplyDeleteMacMiller: You got me thinking about money management. I have not gotten back to you yet, I find it hard to evaluate any systems based on dimes or units. I have to translate everything into dollars or the bankroll. Indian Cowboy will have a 5 start college basketball game up, his game of the week. I will be betting 6.6% of the bankroll on this game. Good luck to you!
ReplyDeleteill be on it too as long as its not a heavy favourite!
ReplyDeleteSo Blogger do you think I should raise the .265 since its the game of the week or stick with the .265
ReplyDelete