SATURDAY: A SPECIAL MESSAGE FROM OUR 2011 HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR

UPDATE, ITS 3:55 AM EASTERN SATURDAY: I am skipping Saturday as I see no plays strong enough to bet money on. Less is more. Look at how poorly I do when I give out a bunch of games to my sports monitor, especially hockey. The secret is I don't actually bet more than one or two games a day and I never bet hockey. Today I don't see anything on the board worthy of making a bet on. Lets not get in the way of the parlay card bettors today. See you Sunday. 10:18 AM EASTERN SATURDAY: But for the record the Golden Goose has two plays Saturday, notice that his 30 dime teaser is the same as Mr. Budin's big play. I see no line value today. Folks, never bet parlays or teasers:

Brandon Lang Paid Plays - Winner Winner Chicken Dinner:
75 dimes: Houston - 4 points - Win
30 dimes: 2 team - 7 point teaser: Saints - 3.5 / over 52 - Win

Free play: Under 38 - Loss

Mr. Lang's expert analysis (Mr. Lang will continue to make picks, all is right with the world. Papi is happy with the confidential Opus Dei report, the investigation is now a wrap):

All about the small home favorite.

After watching the Bengals last week get run over by the Ravens at home I just can't get past how bad their run defense got exposed.

Now you have to face a pair of running backs in Foster and Tate, on the road after you were run over.

Folks, if you can't stop the run in the NFL then I don't care who you are, you are not going to be successful on any level.

You are getting incredible value with the Texans today based on their late season meltdown and it's value I can't pass up.

Everyone is treating the Texans as the black plaque in this game but not me. I truly believe Andy Dalton is in for a long day.

I believe Yates will manage the offense which will welcome back Andre Johnson and just his presence makes a huge difference in this game.

All things considered, the hometeam, the value, the Bengals implosion against the run and allowing a Ravens offense that doesn't have near the weapons the Texans have to do pretty much whatever they wanted.

Been a good run for the Bengals. Be a good team next year but this game today is about the better team, with the better offense and the better defense winning this game by double digits with Wade Philips making it a long day for Dalton.

Ride the small home chalk as the Texans roll into the divisional round.

ANALYSIS

I almost pulled the trigger on the Saints and over in a parlay but decided to just tease them to the over and enjoy the game.

You look at the Saints 8 home games this year and 5 of their 8 games were Saints and over.

The only 3 that didn't make it were the Bears in week 3 which fell 30-13, the Bucs in week 6 which fell 27-16 and the first Lions battle which fell 31-17.

Truth be told, that first meeting with the Lions should have flew over but redzone turnovers will do that to you.

The Saints will win this game by double digits seeing as their home margin of victories have been by double digits with exception of the Texans game which fell on 7.

Look at the blowouts, Bears by 17, Colts by 55, Bucs by 11, Giants by 25, Lions by 14, Falcons by 29 and the Panthers by 28.

With that kind of home dominance and especially down the stretch winning their last 2 home games by 4 touchdowns or more, a nice teaser is the way to go here.

The Saints come marching in today in a valued kind of way.

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ITS 12:44 AM EASTERN SATURDAY: The Golden Goose has been located, safe and sound, thank goodness! Because we are coming right down Main Street today! Opus Dei agents obtained this video that may appear at his website later. Bob Valentino cracked under questioning. The investigation is continuing through the night...





















The ink is dry!


Free Pick: Under the posted total in the Bengals/Texans game

Hot handicapper from his site - this guy is on fire!



The stable of handicappers at brandonlang.com:
















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Guest handicapper Mr. Steve Budin checks in. 900 dimes over 4 years? We do that in a month fading the Golden Goose. Steve has his 100 dime "Pro Football Lock of the Year" Saturday. This play is even a stronger one than the Clemson Tigers (buy the 1/2 point) play against West Virginia. Its only $99:



Mr. Budin's Pro Football Lock of the Year, RESULTS - Win:
100 DIMES FROM THE FREEHOLD NJ WISE GUYS: Teaser: New Orleans - 4 1/2 and Over 53.

Heck with the teaser for $99 and buying half points. I want some of that incredible ganja!



Mr. Al DeMarco checks in, wearing the same suit he had on when questioned by Opus Dei agents:



Not one to separate himself from the crowd, Mr. DeMarco likes the New Orleans Saints.

Al provides us with his reasons for his monster 10 dime pick:

10 Dime Play on New Orleans as the home favorite agacnst Detroit at the Superdome. The Saints are currentnly -10 1/2 points at the majority of books in Vegas and offshore as I release this play at 3:55 AM Pacific. As you know, I'm a firm believer in buying the 1/2 point when a line crosses 3, 4, 7 and sometimes 10. Thus, I'm spendhng the extra 10 cents per dollar on this wager and buying New Orleans down to -10. I said I "sometimes" buy the insurance on 10. The last time I had a play with this number - when Atlanta hosted Minnesota November 27 - I failed to do so and watched the Falcons blow a big early lead and win by just 24-14, leaving me with a push when a victory would have been assured if I had just purchased the half-point for an extra 10 cents on the dollar. Not making that mistake again, although I do think the Saints win this easily as reflected in my final projected score below.

I've said repeatedly this season on the Countdown to Kickoff show and my Daily Video Reports that I'm bullish on the Saints when they're at home and skittish when it comes to them on the road.

I had 15 Dime releases on New Orleans in its last three Superdome outings against the Lions (won 31-17 laying -9), Giants (won 49-24 laying -7) and Falcons (won 45-16 laying -7) and picked up three easy winners. Why deviate from the gameplan tonight?

The Saints are 8-0 at home this season. The offense has averaged 41.1 points a game. Their winning margin is an average of 23.2 points.

Is there a hotter team than New Orleans, winners of eight in a row? Drew Brees has completed 72% of his passes during the streak for 2,730 yards and 29 TDs. More amazingly, and further proof of how quickly he makes decisions and unloads the ball, Brees has been sackcd just five times in those eight games despite throwing 314 times.

Detroit arrives off a 45-41 loss at Green Bay, a meaningless game for the Packers, one where they rested Aaron Rodgers only to watch back-up quarterback Matt Flynn shred the Lions' secondary for 480 yards and six TDs. And that was outside in the cold at Lambeau. Today the Saints enjoy the comforts of home where they always play loose and fast while displaying the killer instinct that makes them a pointsprenad-covering giant.

When these two met five Sundays ago, New Orleans jumped out to a 24-7 half-time lead. The Saints outgained Detroit 304-184 before intermission. The Lions did draw within seven as New Orleans seemingly coasted at times in the second half, but Brees, who finished with 342 yards and 3 TDs, guided his team to the covering-scoring in the final quarter.

Detroit played an undisciplined game in the first go-round, committing 11 penalties. And although Matt Stafford completed 31-of-44 passes for 408 yards, the offense as a whole managed just 466 because of its usual ineffective ground game in addition to going 0-for-6 on third-down conversions in the second half.

Another refrain I've sung repeatedly this season is Detroit's inability to play well on the road. The Lions are 5-3 straight-up and 3-5 versus the spread on the highway with an average score of 29-28 in their favor. The dreadful performance at Green Bay last Sunday wasn't their first hiccup on the road. They previously needed to rally for a 28-27 win at Oakland, which was preceded by the 31-17 loss at New Orleans. Earlier in the year they were trounced 37-13 at Chicago while needing to make dramatic rallhes from double-digit deficits to prevail 34-30 at Dallas and 26-23 at Minnesota. Their only solid win on the road this season was a 45-10 rout of the Broncos in Denver on October 30.

The Saints are on runs of 19-3 SU and 17-4-1 ATS at home versus NFC South foes in regular and post-season play combined.

The oddsmakers are begging you to take Detroit, especially by offering the extra half point (Lions +10 1/2). But to do so would be a mistake.

Brees and his teammates play with reckless abandon and confidence at home with a strike-first, strike-often mentality. That's why they're 8-0 in New Orleans with an average winning score of 41-18. Tonight's game won't be that easy, but a cover is a certainty as its fueled by the motivation to erase last January's embarrassing first-round exit at Seattle when the Seahawks, a 10-point dog, won outright 41-36.

A big number, but note 47 of the 106 wildcard games played since 1978 have decided by 14 points or more. That's a 44% share. And road dogs in that span, such as Detroit, are just two games over .500.

Final projected score: Saints by 17 - Win, Good analysis of the game!

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Indian Cowboy checks in from the back bedroom. The guy is still on hockey, unreal. But I see he was on the Trailblazers at home against the Lakers. I am impressed, but stay off the ice IC!



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Stu Feiner checks in - his video today.

Stu likes SMU, Houston and New Orleans. Call Stu and tell him thanks for the picks. Stu was on Arkansas and the under. He has been hot lately. RESULTS: Stuie goes 3-0 on the day.