UPDATE: Thanks Mr. Lang for bailing me out on the early week. When I try to handicap on my own, its a major fail. But now with the gregarious Mr. Lang and the studious Mr. Cowboy, I don't need to handicap. But no one can replace Cheetah. Umgawa! I go up 40 dimes today and am up 7 dimes on the week as the Lang Fade covers on Air Force + 3. I just wish it was a 100 dimer. Please, no more teasers Brandon! I want to thank my two guest handicappers for wearing their Air Force blue shirts in their videos! It made the difference. -----
Sorry about the lateness of this post, I was out shopping for the best line. I got off the Lang Fade yesterday and it cost me dearly. Today I am back on the Fade Train and have complete confidence in the Falcons to cover.
Total profit since this blog started and today's beginning balance: $79,643
Bet per dime: ($79,643 divided by 1,000 units) times 1.1 = $87.61
ITS 1:12 PM EASTERN WEDNESDAY - MR. LANG FADE PLAY: 40 Dimes on the USAF Academy Falcons +3 1/2 over the Toledo Rockets in the Military Bowl at RFK Memorial Stadium, Washington, D.C., 4:30 PM EST. Bet $3,504 (40 X $87.61) Shop around on this line, the worst I have saw here was + 3 1/2. (UPDATE: I am grading this at +3 as that is what one reader got, read the comment. If you get a worse number than what I show I am grading it at, let me know, I will change the grading to your number.) I got it at + 4, try to get it at + 4 as the public seems to be more on Toledo than they are on the USAF Academy. You should be able to get + 4 if you shop around or have multiple outs., Won $3,185
Profit on the day: $3,185
Total profit since this blog started and today's beginning balance: $82,828
I asked our guest handicappers to wear Air Force blue today in their videos: Go Falcons!
THE GOLDEN GOOSE CHECKS IN:
Paid Pick: 40 Dime selection is on Toledo over Air Force. The current line is averaging Toledo -3 in Vegas and offshore. If this line moves to 3 1/2 I advise to buy the 1/2 and lay -3. Never get beat by the hook. - Loss
Free Pick: Cal + 3 1/2 - Loss
Analysis
Don't trust this conference against anybody right now.
With Wyoming getting blown out and San Diego State losing outright as a favorite, here comes the Flyboys catching points.
Just don't see their run defense stopping Toledo.
In their game against Wyoming, the Owls of Temple boasted the #7 rush offense against Wyomings #115 rush defense.
It was over on the first drive when you saw the Temple offense run it right down Wyomings throat and it was game over.
Here we go again.
Toledo brings the #15 rush offense against the #113 rush defense of Air Force and when it comes time to get critical stops in this game to cover the number, it will be Toledo's ability to do just that and not Air force.
I am aware of the Air force run game ranked #2 in the country behind Army but I am confident Toledo will put 8 in the box and force Jefferson to throw all game long to beat them.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the fact the Flyboys are the 7th worst passing team in the country because they run it so well.
You take them out of their run game, get them behind, force them to throw and you will own them.
Just ask Notre Dame, who jumped on them early and beat them 59-33.
Lastly, watching Wyoming get shredded by Temple in every single facet of the game I kept asking myself, how does Air Force lose to Wyoming 25-17 at home?
I mean, Wyoming couldn't stop their grandmothter running the football yet Air Force couldn't move the ball at all.
The difference in this game will be the Toledo offense and their ability to move the ball on the ground and in the air. There is a reason they are the 8th best offense in the country.
The best player on the field belongs to Toledo in Eric Paige and when you have an offense as good as Toledo's is and the best player on the field as well, the right side is the team out of the MAC.
When the smoke clears, Toledo pulls away with big plays from Paige, maybe even a special teams score as well and pulls away in the 2nd half.
The bottom line is this: I trust a Toledo offense that went into Temple and shredded the 12th best defense in the country, on their field 36-13.
Today, they face the 75th best defense on a neutral field and although Air Force may stay close for awhile, they don't have the passing game to sustain them for 60 minutes versus Toledo.
Of the 8 Toledo wins, 7 were by 7 points or more with the other a 3-point win over Western Michigan.
I'm very confident this victory tonight will be by 7 points or more as this small favorite grabs a big win for their new coach and sets the table for good things in 2012.
The big MAC notches their 3rd bowl in in 4 games this afternoon.
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MASTER HANDICAPPER INDIAN COWBOY CHECKS IN. THIS GENTLEMAN HAS BEEN HOT!:
5 STARS - College Basketball: Colorado State +3 over UTEP (9pm est) - Win
4 STARS - NBA: San Antonio Spurs -4 over Los Angeles Clippers (8:30pm est) - Win
4 STARS - NHL: OVER 5 Minnesota Wild vs. Nashville Predators (8pm est) - Loss
COMP (NBA): New Orleans Hornets +2½ over Boston Celtics (8pm est) - Win
8 STARS - BCS National Championship Game: OVER 40 Alabama vs. LSU (Monday 1/9 9pm est)
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UPDATE: Today the sports monitor plays went 4-1 at max unit value. And those were all given out free, LOL! One other capper gave out one pick, a heavy favorite in hockey. Those cappers over there sure like to guard their picks, can't wait to see the updated top capper list when it comes out tomorrow. Funny stuff!
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I just checked in with my new sports monitor. You all know I lost yesterday. The joke is that I am again the Number 1 handicapper the last seven days, now with even a higher win percentage. If you are new here (Nevada residents only please) the funny part is that all I have been doing is following Indian Cowboy and Fading the Golden Goose. I guess that is enough to make you the top capper, LOL. There was only two of us over there who posted free picks yesterday. Of course I give out all the picks free when I post my selections. Sometimes their lines are stale, but the monitor is free. Funny, huh. The truth is I can't seem to get to my $100,000 profit goal, mainly because I got off what brought me to the dance. My biggest competition seems to be Ray Polacco. Bring it on Ray! LOL, I couldn't make this up:
Here Porky Pig is doing his Stu Feiner impersonation, wearing Air Force blue of course!
Not sure y the time of this post is off on this but oh well. 440 pm. Unfortunately I couldn't get +3.5, only +3. It's still a push instead of a loss if they lose by 3. Could be worse. Now being able to buy to +4 would have been nice but not much difference in those 2 #'s if u ask me. +3.5 and + 4 that is but what do I know. I don't have a lot of options at this time though.
ReplyDeleteThanks Gus for the comment. I have noticed on these games a large line movement. I will grade this at +3 as that is what you got it at. Its only fair as I make my bets before I post on the blog. Thanks for the info as I did not check the line after my posting. The line should be graded at what everyone can get, no question about it. And I do not believe or advise to buy the half point.
ReplyDeleteGus: The time of the posts is the Pacific timezone, my time here in Vegas. I use Eastern Standard Time for the time of the picks because that is what is posted at ESPN, yahoo, covers, etc. So the posting time should be the same time as yours, unless you are a Nevadan who is traveling back East somewhere.
ReplyDeleteGus: Hey you won so its no problem. No way I can tell where you are but if you are traveling in a time zone two hours ahead of Nevada let me know, then I will know I don't got a problem with the time thing on the blog. Thanks.
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