Wednesday, May 15, 2013

WEDNESDAY: SHIT SPECIAL OF THE DAY - Memphis Grizzlies +4 1/2 visiting the Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:35 PM EST plus one baseball game

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   I want YOU to make money!
 Everything on this site is total bullshit except one thing.
Winning! I pity the fool that does not understand that!
 CURRENT FUND: FUND 4          
Starting balance of $50,000
   Today's beginning balance = $59,329.19
Today's profit = $1,487.89
Today's ending balance = $60,817.08
This week's profit so far through Wednesday = $1,722.77
1% of the bankroll = $593

Thanks Shit!
NBA BET FOR 1% OF THE BANKROLL - SHIT SPECIAL OF THE DAY
$593 NBA 737 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +4 1/2 VISITING THE OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER, 9:35 PM EST
Winner, FINAL SCORE: Memphis 88 Oklahoma City 84, profit of $539.09
"Shit Special of the Day: Memphis +4.5. Maybe I'm in the minority but I just don't see Memphis losing by more than 3 points if at all. In the playoffs they are 9-1 ATS and 7-3-1 as an underdog last 11 games. Also this year the only time they lost by double digits to OKC was when Rudy Gay was traded and Prince wasn't on the team yet following the trade. Also Durant is 1-3 when facing elimination. I think the best game was the last game and I don't see Memphis giving them a 17 point lead again. BOL"

MLB BET FOR 1% OF THE BANKROLL - FADING MR. AITCH IN BASEBALL
$593 MLB 912 LA DODGERS RUN LINE -1 1/2 +160 AT HOME OVER THE WASHINGTON NATIONALS, 10:10 PM EST
Winner, FINAL SCORE: LA Dodgers 3 Washington 1, profit of $948.80
Hondo (34-31)
"Hondo treaded water last night as he hit with the Rays against Lackey but missed with the Mariners because of the ineptitude of Furbush, aka Mr. Redundant. Thus, the debt remained at 190 garveys.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch will tip his hat to a Nat — 10 units on Ross to show the Dodgers who’s Boss."

  Grading at lines above, about the worst lines I could find.
Of course, always shop around.
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SBMS Report Card
8 Week's Ago Loss (Monday through Sunday week) = $6,126.94
7 Week's Ago Loss =  $1,512.22
6 Week's Ago Loss =    $3,872.86
5 Week's Ago Loss  = $3,906.96
4  Week's Ago Profit = $1,829.64
3 Week's Ago Profit = $65.40
2 Week's Ago Profit = $493.95
Last Week's profit = $2,791.40
This week's profit so far through Wednesday = $1,722.77

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For newbies at sports betting - article I found at covers.com:

Oddsmakers don't try to predict the outcome of the game when setting point spreads. If a team is favored by seven points, that doesn't mean that the oddsmaker necessarily thinks it will win by seven points. The oddsmaker's goal when setting the line is to keep an equal number of bets on both sides of the game. The betting public's perception of the game can be as important as the actual comparison of the two teams.
Why do oddsmakers try to keep the action even on both sides of a bet? A bookie's worst fear is being "sided." This happens when many bets come in on one side of a game. If that side turns out to be the winning side, the bookie will lose a lot of money. Ideally, half the bettors lose, and their money goes to pay off the other half, who won, with the bookie taking the vig.
Oddsmakers are so intent on keeping the action even that they actually move the line in response to betting patterns. If too many bets are coming in for the underdog, then that team might have been given too many points, so the line is moved. Bets made prior to the move are still counted at the old line. Some bettors will make additional bets after the line moves, on the opposite side of the game. This is known as middling. For example, let's say the opening line on a football game is Tampa Bay -7; SAN FRANCISCO. A lot of people might think Tampa Bay will beat San Francisco by more than seven points, so they all bet on Tampa. The oddsmaker sees this pattern and moves the line, giving Tampa -10. Now, Tampa has to win by more than ten points for bets placed on Tampa to win. A bettor can place another bet with the new line, this time on San Francisco. If Tampa wins the game by eight points, the bettor has middled -- he's won on both bets.
Sometimes a single well-known gambler can force oddsmakers to move the line. When one of these gamblers makes a bet, a lot of people pay attention and bet the same way, because he has a reputation for winning frequently. This can draw so much action to one side of the bet that the oddsmaker must move the line.

179 comments:

  1. Hey guys. Just thought I would check in on the ole blog. I hope everyone is well. Are you ready for some football?

    And my parting thought...I see the Heat winning by 21 tonight. The large spread has LV asking people to take the Bulls, but their tank is empty. This line reminds me of the Bama/ND game at -10. They wanted the public to take ND and I was cashin' tix in the middle of the first half.
    BOL guys.

    Curious to hear what our NBA elite capper, SHIT, has for his play on this game?

    --Navy

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good morning! Great to hear from you Navy! I'm so ready for some football. My pods:
    Padres
    Rangers
    Mariners
    Royals/Angels over

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  3. Good morning guys!

    NAVY, long time no hear. You had to love the Pacers yesterday. Good luck today!

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  4. Wish we had football all year round! Best sport to make money at.

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  5. Going to stay off the Red Sox from now on out, I don't care if Hondo does have the other side. **** the Sox, lol. Patrick will like that!

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  6. Good morning everyone!
    nice to hear from ya Navy !

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  7. Good morning Patrick!

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  8. Padres +135
    Rangers -110
    Seattle +100
    Royals over 8.5 -115
    Dodgers -1 +106
    Ca$h it!

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  9. Hi guys

    Soccer today love btts (both teams to score) and Chelsea tt over....

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  10. MLB so far...
    Atl under f5 and GM
    Brew
    Cards rl

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  11. Replies
    1. Hi rick.. how's it going

      Delete
    2. Going good gator...hope things are well with you. Looking at the Preakness, I like ORB again to win this race. Good luck to you!

      Delete
  12. Didn't play it.. but go fathers!

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  13. No joey Crawford tonight. Must be going to NY tomm to get a game 6

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  14. Added cws over 9 and f5
    Also Indians f5 and gm

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  15. Late add det/stl f5 and gm

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  16. All is good rick. Gl with ur ponys

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  17. joey crawford will most likely officiate games 5 and 6 for knicks.. if he is on their game tomm. a future bet on the knicks to win the series is a good play. can hedge in game 7

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  18. and detroit blows a 4-1 lead..

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  19. rest of mlb
    Cubs gm and f5
    Cards RL
    Crads f5 and chelsea tt over
    Doyers Over 6.5 and f5
    A's
    Seattle under 7.5 and f5
    Royals over f5 and game
    brew crew f5

    Nhl: bruins under 5 and wings

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  20. 1-1 start with cws over f5 W and detroit f5 loser

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  21. indians wins f5 . nice +145 cash on that

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  22. Nice win on Indians gator, sweet! I see DannyB is on the Red Sox ML, last you will hear of DannyB here from me, lol.

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  23. slats also looking good on the fathers

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  24. gator u are grasping for straws on this knicks ordeal. get off the train!

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  25. Shit Special of the Day: Memphis +4.5. Maybe I'm in the minority but I just don't see Memphis losing by more than 3 points if at all. In the playoffs they are 9-1 ATS and 7-3-1 as an underdog last 11 games. Also this year the only time they lost by double digits to OKC was when Rudy Gay was traded and Prince wasn't on the team yet following the trade. Also Durant is 1-3 when facing elimination. I think the best game was the last game and I don't see Memphis giving them a 17 point lead again. BOL

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BONUS: Take the Under 185 for the OKC/Memphis game. The last 4 games has alternated under/over/under/over and this one should go under the number as it will be a grind out game.

      Delete
    2. Thanks Shit! Taking them for 1% of the bankroll.

      Delete
    3. Navy: I am not touching that Bulls game. I can easily see a blow out but I can't see them getting blown out that big two games in a row. I think Heat will take it lightly to avoid any injuries and maybe a backdoor cover by the Bulls.

      Delete
  26. Boom! Padres +135! Great start to the day. Go Rangers!

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  27. Chelsea scores both teams to score winner!

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  28. Only 2 MLB loses are tigers. That's why u never play high juice... both the loses were at-105 with the parlays

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  29. 4-2 to start MLB so far +2.8x

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  30. Glad it cashed slats!

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  31. What a goal by Chelsea!!!

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  32. Benfica just blew 2 trophies in back to back games in stoppage time. Bruuutal

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  33. Wow some guy predicted a 2-1 Chelsea win and had +750 odds on the exact score. Missed out on that opportunity was too late, game had already started.

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  34. rick if u are looking for a bases guy u should look into john ryan. heard he is pretty good.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will check him out Shit. I just dumped DannyB when I found out he was on the Boston Red Sox today, lol. Thanks!

      Delete
    2. I think the Hondo Fade is going to heat up here. Sticking with that for now.

      Delete
  35. Those score props are so tough

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  36. Shit.. ur thoughts on okc 1h but Memphis full GM?

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    Replies
    1. I think the 4th qtr/ OT portion will carry over for Memphis and they win 1Q not sure 1H. think they want to get a jump on okc to not have another double digit deficit to come back from. all the 1H with the exception of yesterday was within 1-3 points. also like under 1st qtr.

      damn line is up to +5.

      Delete
  37. What a burn on atl under

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    Replies
    1. The Braves are like 11-16 since they're 11-1 start.

      Delete
  38. Crap.. Beckett to dl

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  39. Memphis +5 Shit special
    LAD -1 +105 ( they are close to getting banned )
    Both 1/2%
    Thanks Shit, BOL everyone!

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  40. Nice job slats on mariners. F5 loser with 1 out in first and GM under soon to follow

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  41. First and last time betting a phil Hughes under lol

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    Replies
    1. Hughes is definitely fade material. Sorry about the total.

      Delete
  42. The Mariners are looking ok early.

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  43. Under loser 1st inning lol

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  44. He is a fade just didn't expect the Ms to get 7 in first lol

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  45. Very surprised by the heat

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  46. Just taking a stab on Detroit +180

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  47. Replies
    1. Yea posted it the other day

      Delete
    2. Oh yeah. You took the Senators, Wings, Sharks, and who else?

      Delete
  48. DA BULLS!!! 1h +8 cash it!! 1H ML +380 cash it!!! Under 91 1H no cash =(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. tony brothers sure love to call those fouls he might be the bulls best friend. lol

      Delete
    2. I thought u weren't playing them again...

      Delete
    3. yeah I did and at last minute I changed my mind. too good of a team to get blown out 2 games in a row. nate robinson would not get another 0fer again either I didn't think. took a chance.

      Delete
    4. only did 1H's though. not sure if they are gonna stay the pace.

      Delete
  49. The heat still might covet this game.

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  50. This brewers game stinks. Loved it... 2.5x stings.

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  51. I need the Royals over to get out my pod broom.

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  52. Gator, tie hockey game after 2. I got +175 for 1/4%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. me too. should have taken +.5 on the wings in the first 60 mins.

      Delete
  53. 1st qtr under cash it. 1H over now took a shot Memphis +5.5 1H.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I got a lot of (pending) money coming and it all depends on Memphis today. lol parlays, teasers, series bet, moneyline, spread, etc.

      Delete
    2. Oh well on wings. Will add to series if I can get +400

      Delete
  54. Hoping Detroit takes 1 of 2 in chi.. public perception will drive that price up. Still like the wings

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  55. gator hope I stopped u from betting okc 1H knew that was a sucker's bet.

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  56. damn wings lost? it was 1-1 at 2nd intermission how the hell did Chicago get 3 more points? damn. gator 0-3 in hockey picks. let's turn it around

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  57. okc is toast TONIGHT. get out ur wallets, ur piggy bank, ur car loan, whatever u got and load up on Memphis 2H. looks like they are finally get a double digit blowout on okc.

    ReplyDelete
  58. 0-3?? Only had 2 bets lol. Wings and sens

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    Replies
    1. oh sorry gator I had sharks. actually got the under 3.5, 4 on the other game too so 2-3 for me.

      Delete
  59. gator did u take any moneyline on Memphis? told u okc is not gonna have a repeat performance like game 4. they will be lucky to score 75 points.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A small ml bet. Pts much bigger

      Delete
    2. did u had a series bet on Memphis too? looks like we are finally cashing in everything! drinks on me! lol

      Delete
  60. I had over 87.5 1H and guess what. it goes 88. thank u conley for hitting those free throws! love u man!

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  61. easy 2H bets Memphis +6 Memphis ml +305 okc under 49 team total points.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Shit... you crack me up...

    We always hear about your multiple winners... like bulls first half bulls under etc etc. Yet early you were not going to touch them lol.

    Just trying to keep the blog real here.

    ---- TRUCK

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wasn't but I wanted action on the first game (5 mins before tipoff) and I said bulls 1H would be the way to go if I took the bulls so I took a shot. believe or don't but my record speaks for itself.

      Delete
  63. I hope to god they retire that god awful "u look like kevin Durant" commercial after okc get's eliminated. I have nightmares about it and don't want to see it ever again.

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  64. Pod sweep! Hoping now for the blog.

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    Replies
    1. Good job Slats! Naturally after dumping DannyB his Boston pick is a blowout. Wish I had stepped it up here at 2% on the Shit Special too. Happy here if Memphis covers and the Dodgers win by 2 runs. May bring DannyB back tomorrow.

      Delete
  65. Shit got +150 for series. 2h took mem and under 94.. hope it hits

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  66. NHL parlay for Tomm both sj and nyr +1.5 goals

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  67. Did I really bet a doyers over expecting runs lol

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  68. Is Memphis gonna ruin our monies??

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    Replies
    1. I still don't think okc will win. one quarter. got a few calls. big deal. Memphis will slow it down and grind home a winner. pace says it all.

      Delete
    2. Hope not lol. I only have ml small but rooting big for u

      Delete
    3. I want that 2H ml but I don't know if its reachable at this point. lol

      Delete
  69. NIGHT NIGHT put the kids to bed. it's been nice knowing u Oklahoma but we will not be making any more pit stops there.

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  70. 2h split. Z-bo sux under hits

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    Replies
    1. yeah he missed 3 ft's cost us our cover for the 2H. I am still happy they won. I almost shit my pants watching okc comeback.

      Delete
    2. went 1-2 in 2H plays okc tt under only thing I hit. =(

      Delete
  71. anytime rick! anytime.

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  72. why the hell did i bet a doyers over?? gonna count that as as loss lol

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  73. Replies
    1. im going to do a 2 team parlay ml for spurs and pacers.

      u don't always have to bet baseball. just pass if u don't like it.

      Delete
  74. rick I would like to request phil Collins in the air tonight for tomorrow. please retire for he's a jolly good fellow. lol

    ReplyDelete
  75. time to add up all this mlb lolafter all those mlb games to day.. lost -1.52x
    soccer +1x
    nhl -1x

    nba 3-1 was my profit lol

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  76. yea its gonna be very small if i do anything. although there is a great matchup of verlander/darvish :)

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  77. nhl tomm:

    sj+1.5/nyr+1.5 ml parlay
    boston under 5

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  78. only time ull see verlander as a dog

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  79. so u like Detroit?

    gator remember I said Memphis is gonna do a backdoor sweep? wish I would have bet Memphis winning in 5. damn it. wonder what was the odds.

    ReplyDelete
  80. gator what u think about adding Ottawa to ur hockey parlay and make it a 3 teamer with +1.5 on all of them?

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  81. dunno if i wanna play detroit. texas hitting extremely well

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  82. so i have ottawa +265, and +400
    wings +260ish, will add more to them

    not suprised both those teams lost game 1s..

    will only take sharks for series if they go down 2-0 but i see both games tomm as a dog fight thats why i like the +1.5 goals

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. i'm not sure on the wings. they were tied 1-1 and then get blown out in the 3rd period by 3 straight goals. wtf?

      Delete
  83. how did u get +400 on Ottawa I only see +365 everyone must be betting them.

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  84. my phone app had +400 i grabbed it. i like ottawa more than detroit for sure. hoping i hit 1 of those 2 series.

    ReplyDelete
  85. I think betting in game on hockey gives u better odds from what I have seen especially on the dogs.

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  86. if u dont love detroit u can just do ottawa. i think both go 7

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  87. i think the best play in that mlb detroit game might be f5 under

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  88. i'll do Detroit but small. already got Ottawa +250 for series, +650 for eastern conference. have sharks western conf. +295 and cup for +700. should I add sharks series now or wait until after game 2?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. i am waiting on it. i got a feeling they lose by a goal tomm..i think they win it in 7.

      Delete
    2. ok will wait on them

      Delete
  89. damn nats had 1 and 3rd no outs top 8th and got nothing..

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  90. hahahhaa still cracks me up. clippers traded z-bo for....wait for it........Quentin Richardson. hahahah what a fucking steal by grizzlies!

    ReplyDelete
  91. for the kings.. quick is a beast at home. as much as i wanna take the series.. think there will be more value.. could be wrong but thats what im thinking. im just mad i took ottawa and detroit b4 now. obviously 20./20 hindsight

    ReplyDelete
  92. Replies
    1. yeah that was a good one too. was kobe the #12th pick overall? what a steal.

      gasol was traded for gasol and everyone thought fakers got a steal. actually benefited both.

      Delete
    2. yea thats true.. that kobe trade was absolutely fixed lol

      Delete
    3. nobody knew how good he would be because he came out of high school but jerry west must have saw something in him.

      Delete
  93. I still say sam presti fucked up this okc team. should have kept harden amnestied perkins get a cheap center. they probably could have beaten Memphis if they had harden.

    ReplyDelete
  94. must have.. i wanna know what kind of odds ur giving me on joey Crawford being the knicks ref tomm..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. there saving joey for the heat/pacers game. lol

      if he's on knicks game I am betting over. lol only 179 right now. what can the knicks do to even win the damn game? only if hibbert/west gets in foul trouble by joey would do it. lol

      Delete
  95. didnt they keep ibaka over harden??

    ReplyDelete
  96. harden and duant would have beaten Memphis i think

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. well they could have still kept harden if they used there amnesty and got rid of perkins knocking off his salary. harden wasn't even a free agent until this summer. could have kept everybody and make a decision over the summer too. presti was a dumb shit.

      reminds me of Orlando when they had penny and shaq and everyone was thinking multiple championships. an injury to penny and shaq going to Hollywood and they were toast.

      Delete
  97. i think Indiana is clearly the better team but if its 8 on 5 i dunno lol

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I thought joey hated thugs though? so maybe j.r. smith or Kenyon martin gets tossed. think nba wants a sunday afternoon of heat and pacers they are tired of this waste of space knicks team.

      Delete
  98. presti should get exec of the year

    ReplyDelete
  99. only real advantage i see for spurs over grizz is the experience factor

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. and maybe coaching if u call it an advantage.

      they played 4 games in regular season. 2 games went OT. 1 blowout and 1 close win by Memphis. so 2-2 they are evenly matched. 3 games was before rudy gay trade though.

      Delete
  100. or does the nba need a good 2nd round series b/c these have been crap

    ReplyDelete
  101. jr smith and melo are cancer players

    ReplyDelete
  102. pacers +5 just seems to easy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. well u got 2 home teams winning today so it is right to have to road teams winning tomorrow.

      I just go back to Indiana playing Atlanta and everyone was thinking Atlanta wins game 6 to go to a 7th game but Indiana surprised everyone and they won in Atlanta.

      Delete
  103. the gay factor changes the whloe complexion of the series. hard to judge

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. just bet under every game. lol

      Delete
  104. well hollins is a moron. still dont know why z-bo got the ball the last 2 possessions on those ft

    ReplyDelete
  105. for me its all about joey crawford. if hes on the game i dunno what to think but if he's not.. pacers +5 is the absolute correct play i think

    ReplyDelete
  106. i def think pacers can win on the road

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think they get blown out by the knicks like game 2. it will be something like game 1 but knicks have lost there confidence so hard for me to take knicks. its pacers or nothing for me.

      if joey is in I am going over for sure.lol

      Delete
    2. i want a prop on ejections lol. did u see tony allen and the towel.. what a crappy thing to do

      Delete
    3. think it slipped off his hands or something. fish kept them alive bombing 3's.

      gator do we hedge on spurs or go for the gusto and bet more on grizzlies series against the spurs?

      Delete
  107. so gallardo wins 14/15 from pirates and i back him and he loses. lol

    ReplyDelete
  108. im waiting to see what the series line is. so glad we got it when we did. my father is asking me what to do with his.. i told him he has to hedge

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. i'm gonna wait it out. think it goes 6 or 7. if grizzlies are gonna upset spurs they are gonna do it in game 1. then spurs in game 2. grizzlies next 2 home games. spurs in game 5. grizzlies in game 6.

      Delete
  109. well i think if spurs advance to play miami u have a good idea who will win. the 2 games this year were very competitive..lol

    ReplyDelete
  110. if crawford is in ny tomm.. i make the over under minutes for hibbert at 17 lol

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. or it could be the guys that worked the spurs game. was it ed malloy and crew?

      Delete
  111. yea its posted 9 am so we shall see. i think im going to add a new staple to my mlb. i will be taking f5 over for all detroit and a's home games. and mets overs full game until i change my mind lol,. all 3 trends hitting at over 70%

    ReplyDelete
  112. oh and on the mets over thats when harvey is not pitching

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  113. well im off to bed. talk to u tomm shit

    ReplyDelete